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No culpes al neoliberalismo. Gasto social y crisis en Grecia y España

EL AROMO - El Aromo n° 66 - "Nacional y patronal"

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No culpes al neoliberalismo
Gasto social y crisis en Grecia y España

Tamara Seiffer
OME-CEICS

Es casi sentido común culpar al neoliberalismo de la crisis que vive Europa. En esta nota, en base a los casos de Grecia y España, veremos que, por el contrario, en los últimos años el gasto social creció en forma permanente para contener a la creciente población sobrante. Una muestra para entender que los problemas no son las políticas económicas, sino las leyes del capital.

Miles de trabajadores europeos se han movilizado contra las medidas de ajuste que están llevando adelante los distintos gobiernos, como respuesta a la crisis que los azota. Ante las imágenes que recuerdan al 2001 en la Argentina, los economistas oficialistas nos quieren hacer creer que son solo un recuerdo del pasado. Es más, se vanaglorian que, gracias a sus políticas de expansión del gasto público, estamos blindados frente a la crisis. Señalan como culpable de los problemas europeos al neoliberalismo por su ataque a los llamados Estados de Bienestar y por la falta de intervención estatal. Este argumento se derrumba cuando en lugar de análisis intencionados miramos los datos sobre el rol del Estado en esos países. En sintonía con lo que planteamos en notas anteriores de El Aromo para los casos de Argentina [1] y EEUU [2], en Europa durante los años '90 se observa una creciente expansión del gasto estatal en general y del gasto social (el destinado a políticas sociales) en particular.
En base al análisis de Grecia y España, veremos que no es debido a la falta de intervención del Estado que la crisis se manifiesta. Por el contrario, el creciente rol que este jugó en los '90 y en los 2000 es resultado de que, al igual que ocurre en Argentina, el capitalismo condena en forma creciente a una porción de la población al carácter de sobrante para el capital.

Los que sobran para el capital

Las economías de España y Grecia crecieron durante la última década a un promedio del 4% anual [3]. Se trata de un crecimiento que se encuentra por encima del promedio de la Unión Europea para toda la década. Sin embargo, desde 2007 se empieza a observar en ambos países un desaceleramiento y, para el 2009, una caída del orden del 3%. Mientras España pudo mantener su PBI estable los años posteriores, Grecia ha visto contraer su economía año tras año. A pesar de ello, la tasa de empleo en España cayó del 65,6% en 2007 al 58,6% en 2010 y su tasa de desempleo casi se triplicó pasando del 8,3% al 21,6% para 2011. Grecia, en cambio, logra mantener su tasa de empleo cercana a los valores previos a la crisis (en torno al 60%), lo que no impide que la tasa de desempleo ascienda del 8,3% en 2007 al 12,6% en 2010 [4]. Si nos concentramos en las franjas más jóvenes de la clase obrera (menores de 25 años), las cifras ascienden al 32,8% y 46,4% para Grecia y España respectivamente. El 5,7% del desempleo en Grecia corresponde a obreros que se encuentran desocupados hace más de un año. En España, los valores llegan al 7,3% de la población. A éstos hay que sumar, el 6,4% de los obreros griegos y el 13,3% de los obreros españoles que se encuentran subocupados, así como aquellos que tienen empleos con contratos precarios, que alcanzan al 12,4% en Grecia y al 24,9% en España. Con estos últimos datos podemos ofrecer una cifra estimativa: hacia el año 2010,  más de 11 millones de obreros se constituían en sobrantes para los capitales de estos países.
Dado este cuadro, no es extraño que más del 27% de la población griega se encuentre, según las estadísticas, “en riesgo de pobreza o exclusión social” y que más del 11% esté en la indigencia. Otro tanto ocurre en España, donde las cifras alcanzan el 25% y el 4% respectivamente. Vale resaltar que no se trata solo de desocupados: en España el 12,7% de los trabajadores con empleo son pobres y en Grecia la cifra asciende al 13,8%.
 
¿Y el Estado dónde está?

Lejos de lo que podría indicar el sentido común, el problema no se debe a la falta de gasto social. En primer lugar, el Gasto Estatal General (que incluye todas las instancias de gobierno: la central, las provinciales y las municipales) ha tendido a aumentar en relación con el PBI a lo largo de toda la década en ambos países. En segundo lugar, el gasto destinado a los llamados rubros “sociales” (educación, salud, desempleo, etc.) aumentó tanto en relación con el PBI como en términos absolutos. En el caso de Grecia, las políticas de ajuste recién se empiezan a expresar en los años 2010 y 2011 con una caída del 10% del gasto social y en España en 2011 con una leve caída del 1%.
La mayor parte del gasto social se destina a políticas para la vejez (33,7% promedio para la década en el caso de España y 46,11% en el de Grecia) y para la política de salud (30,38% y 26,90% respectivamente). El gasto destinado a políticas dirigidas a los desocupados, ocupa el tercer puesto en España con el 11,41% promedio y el quinto en Grecia con el 5,48%. Es en 2007, cuando se empiezan a observar los primeros síntomas de la crisis, el año en que el esfuerzo destinado a este rubro cobra mayor importancia. Así, mientras Grecia aumenta el 33% la cantidad de personas a las que asiste con políticas de desempleo, ocupando el 0,9% de su PBI y llegando a 171.572 obreros, España más que las duplica, con una inversión del 4,7% del su PBI y alcanzando a 2.681.224 trabajadores [5].
Aun así, las transferencias del Estado no alcanzan para revertir la situación. Las estadísticas muestran que el 20% de los obreros de ambos países se encuentra en “riesgo de pobreza o exclusión social” después de contabilizar las transferencias gubernamentales.
Las bases de la expansión del gasto son las mismas que las del empleo, se trata del movimiento de la economía en su conjunto. Por ello en ambos países, con intensidad a partir del año 2007, se empieza a observar un intenso déficit fiscal y el aumento de sus deudas.
El problema no es que el Estado no gaste, sino que el gasto no puede revertir la crisis, contrariamente a lo que pregonan los keynesianos. El aumento del gasto es producto de la expansión de la población sobrante y sus movimientos no son más que un síntoma de la propia crisis. Por ello, las propuestas de ajuste al bolsillo de la clase obrera. En España, el gobierno conservador del PP anuncia recortes del gasto social [6] y realiza una reforma laboral que facilita el despedido de trabajadores y el incumplimiento de los convenios colectivos [7]. El gobierno griego, por su parte, aprobó un programa económico que supone el despido de miles de empleados públicos y el recorte de salarios y jubilaciones y pensiones [8]. Un capitalismo que está atravesando una de las crisis más grandes de su historia solo puede ofrecer una mayor miseria para la clase obrera.
No obstante, después de tantos años de silencio, la clase obrera europea parece retomar el camino de la rebelión. Lo han demostrado los obreros ingleses [9], italianos [10], franceses, portugueses, griegos y españoles. Ante el anuncio de los ajustes y el empeoramiento de sus condiciones de vida, la población sobrante de Europa se apresta a la acción.

 

Notas:
[1] Seiffer, Tamara: “La máquina de subsidios”, en El Aromo, nº 60.
[2] Bil, Damián: “¿Y la cobertura social?”, en El Aromo nº 62, op. cit.
[3] Usamos como indicador el PBI. Los datos que se presentan en el artículo, salvo aclaración, fueron extraídos de la Agencia de Estadísticas de la Unión Europa (EUROSTAT).
[4] Actualmente esta cifra ascendería al 21%.
[5] Para el caso de Grecia el cálculo se hizo sobre la base de las personas asistidas en 2003 pues para el período 2004-2008 no se informan datos.
[6] El País, 11/12/11.
[7] El País, 20/02/12.
[8] La Nación, 16/02/12 y 19/02/12.
[9] Véase Kabat, Marina: “Cuatro noches que conmovieron a Londres”, en El Aromo, nº 62.
[10] Véase Harari, Ianina: “Il precario”, en El Aromo, nº 63.

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